How to bet the Kentucky Derby two-day Pick 6 on a budget

Churchill Downs is offering a new two-day Pick 6 across Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby days featuring both cards’ Grade 1 races. The pool will be guaranteed at $250,000, there’s a mandatory payout, and takeout is just 15%.

So we’re going to take a swing at the sequence.

The wager has a minimum bet of $2, and I’ll use one of my favorite cost-effective Pick 6 wagering strategies, the spread ticket formula. It would cost $2,304 to lump all of my contenders on one ticket, but the spread ticket formula knocks the price down to a much more manageable $256.

Friday Picks

Race 8: La Troienne

Primary – #2 Blue Prize, #9 Secret Spice

Secondary – #1 She’s a Julie, #3 Divine Miss Grey

Comments: #2 Blue Prize (7-2) loves Churchill Downs and drilled a Keeneland bullet for this on April 23. This is her first start since finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. #9 Secret Spice (5-2) is a sharp California invader exiting a win over Marley’s Freedom and next-out stakes winner Paradise Woods in the Beholder Mile. #1 She’s a Julie (7-2) and #3 Divine Miss Grey (7-2) should be forwardly placed and both have the talent to win this.

Race 11: Kentucky Oaks

Primary – #10 Champagne Anyone

Secondary – #4 Bellafina, #14 Restless Rider

Comments: #10 Champagne Anyone (6-1) added blinkers in her first two-turn start on a fast track March 30 and gamely won the Gulfstream Park Oaks that day. The versatile filly chased slow fractions last time, and she is more than capable of sitting back and closing into a fast pace as well. Her late pace ratings are strong, and she looks like the one to hold off in a race that sets up perfectly for her. #4 Bellafina (2-1) is a six-time graded winner with a 3-for-3 record this year. I like her early-pressing versatility, but she meets other speed, and Friday’s longer distance might trip her up. Her lone below-par effort was in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Churchill Downs last fall. She obviously has talent, but this looks like a good spot to take a stand against her. I felt the same way about her in the Juvenile Fillies, when she was a non-threatening fourth. #14 Restless Rider (6-1) finished first or second in all seven outings, and four of those races were at Churchill. She was a good second in her needed Ashland return and should appreciate the expected swift fractions. The post is not great, and her final Oaks work was not strong.

Saturday Picks

Race 6: Humana Distaff

Primary – #2 Spiced Perfection, #7 Marley’s Freedom

Secondary – #4 Talk Veuve to Me, #5 Amy’s Challenge

Comments: #2 Spiced Perfection (7-2) frequently puts herself in a winning position with her tactical speed, and she loves seven panels. She won as my top choice in the La Brea and Madison, and she offered nice value in both of those events. #7 Marley’s Freedom (7-5) was up for the place in the Beholder Mile on March 30, and show finisher Paradise Woods returned to romp in the Santa Margarita. She is best in these long sprints, and Smith guided her to a pair graded wins last year. #4 Talk Veuve to Me (7-2) is very good around one turn and was sharp in her winning return at Keeneland April 11. #5 Amy’s Challenge (4-1) set the pace and missed by a neck in the aforementioned Madison at Keeneland. She is probably the one to catch.

Race 8: Churchill Downs

Primary – #8 Mitole, #12 Whitmore

Secondary – #6 Promises Fulfilled, #7 Warrior’s Club

Comments: #8 Mitole (7-2) is a 6-for-9 speedster trying to navigate another furlong. He meets other speed in his toughest test to date. He easily won his last five starts including two in the slop. #12 Whitmore (4-1) projects an outside stalking trip and has the class and numbers to win a race like this. He is a graded winner at this distance and Castellano hops aboard. He handles a wet track but does not move up in the slop. He drew well and gets pace to chase. #6 Promises Fulfilled (4-1) makes his first start since a better-than-appears fourth in Dubai. He reconnects with winning rider Saez and might get brave if he shakes loose over a speed-favoring wet oval, but he is not the only speed horse in this lineup. He ran some quality races in graded sprints as a 3-year-old in 2018. #7 Warrior’s Club (12-1) is a seven-panel specialist exiting back-to-back place finishes to begin his 5-year-old campaign. He missed by a head at 23-1 in this event last year and will probably stalk the pace under Rosario. #2 Limousine Liberal was going to be my top pick in this race, but he was injured during a recent gallop and has retired from racing.

Race 11: Turf Classic

Primary – #2 Raging Bull, #12 Bricks and Mortar

Comments: #2 Raging Bull (5-1) did not quite muster enough of a kick in his Maker’s 46 Mile return on April 12. He won a pair of graded turf races at this distance as a sophomore in 2018 and might be able to bounce back for Chad Brown. #12 Bricks and Mortar (5-2) did not run his best race in the Muniz Memorial at Fair Grounds on March 23, but that was a short field with no pace, and he was forwardly placed and won on class. The Pegasus World Cup Turf hero could easily run faster Saturday and is more than capable of beating these on his best day.

Race 12: Kentucky Derby

Primary – #16 Game Winner

Secondary – #5 Improbable, #8 Tacitus

Comments: #16 Game Winner (9-2) won all four starts as a juvenile (three of those Grade 1 wins) and finished a close second in both starts this year. He is bred to handle a wet track, owns running style versatility, and should be in the clear chasing honest fractions from this post. #5 Improbable (5-1) figures to save some ground behind the speed and proved that he could handle a wet track in a clear place finish in the Arkansas Derby. He won all three of his 2018 starts and landed the place in both outings this year. #8 Tacitus (8-1) needs some pace help and might get it with all of the main speed breaking to his inside. He is 2-for-2 in graded routes.